As markets cycle from bear to bull, we believe it is necessary to experience a “recovery.” It is unlikely that markets will enter a true bull market until losses from the previous bear market are recovered.
The phase of optimism/belief can be seen as the entry point of a new bull market. Generally speaking, buy when the market is weak (feelings of anger, depression or disbelief) or during a period of depression or accumulation (i.e., in mid-2014 to 2015 was a long accumulation period of around $300), and sell when the market is strong (feelings of optimism, belief or euphoria).
Watch out, because market cycles do not exactly follow this pattern. In some extreme markets, the bear market never fully recovers losses before falling into a deeper bear market.
First, no one knows, and we can only estimate. At the moment, it seems like we are between the stage of anger and depression (the image below shows the actual price and market cycles graph). As mentioned before, we have had a large correction from the $20K area to $6,000 (as of this writing).
We expect the price to remain stable or slightly negative for a while. Is this positive overall? Yes, definitely. This is natural and needs to happen. The feeling of euphoria has bloated the blockchain space.
The depression will kill a lot of unnecessary projects, the dumb money, and will create some room for the stronger real projects that are here to stay, and to new, better projects and new smart invested money.
The dominance of Bitcoin started to decline from December 2017 as many investors were looking for new altcoin investments. This surge of altcoin buying is sometimes an indicator that a market is overbought as people seek new opportunities, and so potentially indicates the start of a new decline in the near future.